Wednesday, January 12, 2005


Normally Loony

I don't think it's too early to declare the post-election battle for the soul of the Democratic Party to be over.

It is over already. The Hard Left won.

Why do I say this? Cuz Kerry is still fighting the election campaign, and is now touring the ME dissing Bush and warming up to the likes of Assad. Cuz Dean is openly running for the head honcho posiition in the DNC. Cuz Boxer & Friends tried to prevent certification of the election results. And so on.

As usual after such a defeat, the Dems had a choice - move further to the Left or move to the center. They chose the former, as illustrated above.

The battle will continue, and moderate Dems will do their best, but in the battle of the Normals vs the Loonies, the Loonies will win simply by digging in their heels and forcing the Normals out.

A third party is not that far away now. A few thoughts:

  • Dunno if it'll happen before '08 or after. Depends on the personalities involved. But it is coming. Recent events make that very clear.

  • The MSM will be solidly behind the Loonies. The MSM may be a declining force, but they are still powerful, so expect the Loonier Dems to poll better than they should.

  • The new party will attract more Dems than Republicans, since the Republicans are in power, with less motivation to switch, and the Dems aren't.

  • Republicans should not rejoice on the assumption that splitting the Dem vote will guarantee Republican success: beware what can happen when a third-party is vote-splitting. Perot & Nader have given the US a taste of this scenario, but those of us living in parliamentary systems see it all the time; you never really know what can happen when the votes are divided like that, and who can get in.

All that's needed now is a single charismatic personality to catalyze the reaction. Who will it be...?