Tuesday, November 23, 2004


The Base(Iraq) - Part II

Recently, I posted on the theory that the terrorist "cell system" was vulnerable to attacks on its central facilities, and that Fallujah would be a major test of this. To revisit my previous comments:

The Belmont Club posted an interesting article in Septmeber, based largely on the work of Vladis Krebs, postulating that terrorist cells are hamstrung when their central base is disrupted. The basic reasoning is that the cells are generally small, no more than 100 individuals, most of whom know less than a half-dozen of their fellows in even their own cell. Without a central coordinating agency, they are blind.
First results are in
From the New York Times: "Insurgent attacks around the country have fallen sharply - to about 90 a day from a high of around 150 a day as the battle in Falluja began, according to data compiled by a private security company."
These results are preliminary, but interesting. We'll see if they continue. If they represent a trend, then a major conclusion in how to fight terrorism at the ground level will have been reached.