Tuesday, October 26, 2004


The Danger Of The Last Few Days

As I have posted before, I have always been concerned that the closeness of the polls is an important factor in dissuading terrorist attackson the US this election season; the terrorists run the risk of electoral blowback, and could potentially cost Kerry a victory he might have won anyway.

But of late, two developments coincide to raise my concerns even higher:

  1. Bush has developed a stubborn 3-5 point lead in the polls. Latest rumors even have Kerry, in effect, giving up on Florida in order to marshall those resources elesewhere.

  2. A Washington Times article detailing how the terrorists are openly declaring that their goal in ratcheting up the violence is to embarrass Bush and cost him the election. They apparently feel that Kerry would be more plable to their wishes.
    Resistance leader Abu Jalal boasted that the mounting violence had already hurt Mr. Bush's chances.

    "American elections and Iraq are linked tightly together," he told a Fallujah-based Iraqi reporter. "We've got to work to change the election, and we've done so. With our strikes, we've dragged Bush into the mud."
Ok, put it all together and what have you got? Bush looks like he'll win, and the terrorists will have nothing to lose by trying a Madrid-style attack on the US before the election.

If I were Bush, I'd be worried about this. So much so that I'd explicitly warn people to be even more careful now, specifically on the basis of the terrorists' own statements that they want to ensure a Bush defeat and a Kerry victory. The terrorists are therefore likely to try to duplicate their Spanish success and the next few days are the time they will have to do it.